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Good Tuesday morning. It's DAVID ROGERS' birthday.
The last polls close in Indiana at 7 p.m. Eastern. All polls close in N.C. at 7:30 p.m.
Final RealClear poll averages - Indiana: Clinton +5. N.C.: Obama +7. CNN was hyping it as "the night that could change the face of this race." Not.
PUNDIT PREP, from Politico's Ben Smith: "Most polls suggest relatively narrow margins. ... Besides the votes, [Senator Clinton] needs to win the spin wars and convince heretofore skeptical superdelegates of her right to the nomination. They'll be looking not only at the outcomes in North Carolina and Indiana but also at the breakdown of the votes. ... The 2008 Democratic primary season has contained only one true surprise: Clinton's victory in New Hampshire. Almost all the other primaries and caucuses have emerged in line with polling and with campaign and media expectations."
Tar Heel native Doug Heye, Republican analyst: "Obama turnout in urban areas will need to be huge. ... My final prediction: Obama - 54.5 percent, Clinton 45.5 percent, a nine point loss for Clinton, but still in single digits."
DRIVING THE CONVERSATION - The WashTimes banners "Clinton campaign retools delegate math": "Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign yesterday tried to redefine the delegate math for securing the Democratic presidential nomination, signaling its willingness to wage a divisive battle with front-runner Sen. Barack Obama through the summer. ... Top Clinton aides said the nominee must win based on a tally that includes delegates from Florida and Michigan, which held January primaries that were disqualified by party rules.
"The campaign's 'Delegate Hub' website identifies 2,208 as the total delegates needed to be nominated, or 183 more than the threshold of 2,025 set by the Democratic National Committee's rules. 'That's what we believe is the standard for deciding this - who has the majority of the total delegates including Michigan and Florida to decide the nomination,' said Clinton strategist Geoff Garin."
***NEW CONVENTIONAL WISDOM? Larry Kudlow, on National Review Online: "President George W. Bush may turn out to be the top economic forecaster in the country. About a month ago he told reporters, 'We're not in a recession, we're in a slowdown.' ... We're in the midst of the most widely predicted and heralded recession in history. Problem is, so far it's a non-recession recession. Score one for President Bush. In an election year, it could be a big one."
***Cinco de Madden: Riley has a little brother. Colin Norris Madden arrived yesterday at 5:34 p.m., weighing in at 8 lbs 10 oz. and measuring 21.5 inches long. Kevin reports that Jaclyn and their newborn son are resting comfortably. Everyone is happy and healthy.
THE BIG IDEA:
-"Trade Stances Reframed For Indiana, North Carolina," by Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos: "Weeks after slamming the North American Free Trade Agreement in Ohio, Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have retooled their messages for Indiana and North Carolina, states that have made gains from free trade amid losses elsewhere."
-David BROOKS: "The Clinton campaign seems to want to reduce the entire race to one element: the supposed masculinity gap. And so everything she does is all about assertion, combat and Alpha dog dominance. ... Obama's campaign grows out of the longstanding reform tradition. ...
"They are imperfect messengers for their creeds. Clinton rails against "Wall Street money-grubbers," but her policies are often drawn from the Wall Street wing of the party. Obama talks about postpartisan compromise in the abstract, but rarely in the particular."
-James CARVILLE, writing "Democratic divisions will be hard to bridge" in the Financial Times, looks ahead to a "game of electoral chicken that is almost certain to erupt at the conclusion of the contest: "The winner, with help from the loser, is not only going to have to bridge the fissures within the party but also to find a way to re-embrace those racial and gender identity voters who now find themselves aligned with a new wing of the party."
-Fred BARNES takes to The Wall Street Journal "In Praise of the 'Long' Campaign": "This is what happened routinely under the old primary system, which lasted from late January or early February until the first Tuesday in June, when California, New Jersey and Ohio held their presidential primaries."
TEA LEAVES FOR FALL:
-The AP tallies massive national gains in voter registration: "Voter excitement ... is pushing registration through the roof so far this year - with more than 3.5 million people rushing to join in the historic balloting, according to an Associated Press survey that offers the first national snapshot. Figures are up for blacks, women and young people. Rural and city. South and North. Overall, the AP found that nearly one in 65 adult Americans signed up to vote in just the first three months of the year. ...
"[I]n the 21 states that were able to provide comparable data, new registrations have soared about 64 percent from the same three months in the 2004 campaign. Voters are flocking to the most open election in half a century, inspired to support the first female president, the first black or the oldest ever elected. Also, the bruising Democratic race has lasted longer than anyone expected, creating a burst of interest in states typically ignored in an election year."
-USA Today: "[V]oters under 30 are headed for increases not just in turnout but also in their share of the electorate. ... Their share has risen 4 to 7 percentage points over 2004 in many states." The numbers in the story (which contradict each other) make the trend look flimsier than it's generally portrayed.
-The L.A Times fronts a Mark Z. Barabak piece saying OBAMA WOULD HAVE BETTER COATTAILS FOR HOUSE CANDIDATES: "For those facing tough reelection fights - in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida and here in Indiana - political survival could depend on their choice and on which candidate, Clinton or Obama, leads the ticket in November. ... Many Democrats ... calculate that Obama, more than New York Sen. Clinton, can inspire legions of new voters - particularly young people - to turn out in November. They see a greater potential to draw independents and crossover Republicans as well.'
MORE ON INDY, N.C.:
The Indianapolis Star: "TIME TO CHOOSE: HOOSIERS HEAD TO POLLS AS NATION WATCHES ... Since the 1968 primary - the last presidential contest in which Indiana's vote was considered key - 14,609 days have passed."
The Star's canon: "Rocker John Mellencamp performed at events for both campaigns. ... Clinton took a shot of whiskey and drank a beer at Bronko's Restaurant and Lounge in Crown Point. Obama downed a Budweiserat a VFW hall near South Bend. ... Obama donned sweatpants for a 3-on-3 basketball game in Kokomo. ... Clinton compares her campaign to the 'Milan Miracle,' the basketball team from Milan that won the 1954 state championship." (Inspired "Hoosiers.")
The (Raleigh) News & Observer: "In Greenville, Clinton takes a photo of herself with an admirer's camera. ... Obama shares pound cake with customers at a Durham coffee shop."
Somehow, both are grinning.
Charlotte Observer: "NATION'S EYES ON N.C. AS VOTERS HEAD FOR POLLS: Today's primary is the first in which the state has had a real say in the presidential nomination since 1988."
Sign of the times: The Observer runs "The Day in Superdelegates." Obama got three yesterday and Clinton got a half: "Your superdelegate totals: Clinton 269, Obama 256.5."
ADAM NAGOURNEY sets the goal posts: "A double Obama victory would almost certainly mean lights out for the Clinton campaign. ... [A] sweep by Mrs. Clinton on Tuesday is one outcome that could, to borrow a phrase from Mr. Obama, change the world, or at least begin to. ... The most likely split ... would almost surely mean the race would go on."
At 11:30 p.m., Senator Obama dropped by a shift change at Automotive Component Holdings (ACH) plant in Indianapolis, even as he was chatting up Terry Moran on "Nightline."
From the pool report by Newsday's Nia-Malika Henderson: "Obama happily posed for pictures, signed people's shirts, declined to sign a dollar bill. 'Secret Service would arrest me,' he said. He then looked at the press corps and said that we looked like we needed a shift change."
Senator Obama will be in RALEIGH tonight and Senator Clinton will be in INDIANAPOLIS. Gee, wonder who thinks they're going to win where.
McCAINWATCH:
***Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.), the House GOP's chief deputy whip, is on the road to $2 million in commitments for the McCain campaign and the RNC's Victory fund after breakfast yesterday at the St. Regis in New York with 55 Jewish and pro-Israel leaders. The ask: Please raise at least $50,000 each. Wayne Berman and Lou Eisenberg added pep talks by speakerphone.
SENATOR McCAIN reaches out to conservatives with a 10 a.m. speech on judges at Wake Forest College in Winston-Salem, N.C. In her laydown, AP's Libby Quaid calls it "an olive branch to the Christian right." The headline: "McCain castigates Obama on judges."
From McCain's prepared remarks: "For both Senator Obama and Senator Clinton, it turned out that not even John Roberts was quite good enough for them. Senator Obama in particular likes to talk up his background as a lecturer on law, and also as someone who can work across the aisle to get things done. But when Judge Roberts was nominated, it seemed to bring out more the lecturer in Senator Obama than it did the guy who can get things done. He went right along with the partisan crowd, and was among the 22 senators to vote against this highly qualified nominee. ... Apparently, nobody quite fits the bill except for an elite group of activist judges, lawyers, and law professors who think they know wisdom when they see it - and they see it only in each other."
BLOG SWARM - Arianna Huffington wrote yesterday at HuffPost: "At a dinner party in Los Angeles not long after the 2000 election, I was talking to a man and his wife, both prominent Republicans. The conversation soon turned to the new president. 'I didn't vote for George Bush' the man confessed. 'I didn't either,' his wife added. Their names: John and Cindy McCain (Cindy told me she had cast a write-in vote for her husband)."
Arianna updates: "Update: Through a spokesperson with the colorful name Tucker Bounds, McCain has denied telling me he didn't vote for Bush in 2000. 'It's not true,' Bounds told the Washington Post, 'and I ask you to consider the source.' "
Mark Halperin, proprietor of "The Page" at Time.com, lists "Things You Will Hear Most Often on Cable TV Through Wednesday (Depending on What Happens...)":
1. "She did what she had to do."
2. "She didn't do what she had to do."
3. "John McCain is the big winner tonight."
4. "No matter what, Clinton can't overtake Obama's lead in elected delegates."
5. "There is no way the Democratic Party is going to take the nomination away from an African-American who is the winner of the elected delegate race."
6. "It was the fight over the gas tax that did it."
7. "This leaves us right where we were."
8. "Look at how he did with white, working-class voters in the exit poll."
9. "People are going to start telling her she needs to get out of this race."
10. "Once again, he missed a chance to put her away."
11. "Evan Bayh - he really worked it."
12. "She's a fighter."
13. "He looks tired."
14. "No doubt about it, the Democratic Party is in chaos."
15. "Could there be a dream ticket?"
16. "This thing goes on and on."
17. "Unbelievable!"
18. "Reverend Wright really hurt him."
19. "Reverend Wright really had no effect."
20. "This is really about 2012."
BUT DON'T FORGET PLAYBOOK'S (and Chuck Todd's) FAVORITE: "The math!"
SENATOR CLINTON READ THIS ON "LETTERMAN" LAST NIIGHT - "Top Ten Reasons Hillary Clinton Loves America":
10. We have more Dakotas than every other country combined.
9. Canadian Bacon: soggy and chewy; American Bacon: crisp and delicious!
8. Thanks to the internet, I can order new pantsuits 24/7-there's your pantsuit joke, Dave. Are you happy?
7. 232 years and not one cookie shortage.
6. TiVO.
5. Did I mention the soup? MMM, soup.
4. Did you know former President Teddy Roosevelt was an American?
3. Where else can you get a car painted for $29.95?
2. Is this the part where I say, 'Live from New York it's Saturday Night Live!'?
1. We've got Regis.
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